Research

A cost-effective and transferable methodology for rooftop PV potential assessment in developing countries

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Abstract

The efficient uptake of decentralized solar rooftop photovoltaics (PV) is in some cases hindered by ineffective energy and political framework conditions. These may be based on inaccurate and uncertain potential assessments in the early development stage of the solar market. This paper develops a more accurate, cost-effective, and robust potential assessment for emerging and developing economies. Adjusting the module efficiency corresponding to regional and household conditions improves the output accuracy. The rooftop PV market changes are simulated regarding different input changes and policy designs, including changing the Feed-In Tariff (FIT), grid tariff, and technology development. In the case study, the market potential in Vietnam is estimated at 260-280 TWh/a and is clustered into six groups in priority order, in which Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh need the most policy focus. Changing the FIT from 8.83 to 9 Euro cent/kWh and using different regional FITs can activate an additional 16% of the market and lead to a possible 28 million Euro benefit. Increasing the grid tariff to 8.7 cents/kWh could activate the self-consumption model, and the self-sufficient market can be guaranteed in the case of CAPEX and OPEX being lower than 650 Euro/kWp. Future developments of the method should focus on combining this top-down method with detailed bottom-up approaches.