Research

Electric vehicles or use of hydrogen in the Danish transport sector in 2050?

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Abstract

Denmark is one of the Nordic countries that have set up ambitious long-term targets to reduce GHG emissions from the transport as well as from other sectors. In Denmark the target is to make the transport sector independent of fossil-fuel consumption by 2050 at the latest. This paper compares a likely scenario with two alternative ways to achieve the goal - either with a high percentage of electric vehicles (EV) or with a high percentage of hydrogen (H2) use in the transport sector. The STREAM model - an energy scenario simulating tool - provides insight into different potential energy mixes and calculates socio economic costs. It is used to model the different transport scenarios and their system integration with the electricity and heating sectors. The major findings of this paper are that an increased share of electric vehicles could significantly reduce the socio-economic cost of the system in 2050. Compared to the EV scenario, H2 generation from electrolysis is more flexible and the production can therefore to a larger degree be used to out-balance fluctuating electricity surplus from a high share of wind energy in the power system. H2 production may generate heat that can be used as district heating - replacing traditional heating plants, heat pumps and in some cases combined heat and power plants. Therefore the energy generation mix (electricity and heat) is more affected in the H2 scenario than in the EV scenario. Whether the H2 scenario is more costly to implement than the EV scenario mainly depends on the technological development - especially the efficiency of the electricity to H2 development. It is found that a higher efficiency in the H2 production is more important than a lower level of the capital cost. Therefore, the major driver of a successful H2 scenario is a high efficient and flexible H2 production in 2050. In other words, from a socio-economic view point this paper estimates that the technological path in innovation should have efficiency as its main driver towards 2050.