Research

Evolución de la temperatura de mínima mortalidad en Madrid y Sevilla en el periodo 1983-2018

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Abstract

The increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves is one of the most indisputable effects of climate change. One way of detecting the evolution of the impact of heat is through the increase in the so-called minimum mortality temperature (MMT). The purpose of this study is to determine the temporal evolution of the MMT in two Spanish provinces (Seville and Madrid) during the 1983-2018 period and to evaluate whether the rate of adaptation to heat is appropriate. We used the gross rate of daily mortality due to natural causes (CIEX: A00-R99) and the maximum daily temperature (°C) to determine the five-year MMT using dispersion diagrams. We conducted the same analysis at the annual level. The results obtained in this five-year analysis show that the MMT is higher in Seville than in Madrid and that it is higher among men than among women in both provinces. At the annual level, the linear fit is significant in the case of Madrid for the entire population, and corresponds to an increase in the MMT of 0.58 °C per decade. In the case of Seville, the increase was of 1.14 °C/decade. Both Madrid and Seville are adapting to the temperature increase observed over the past 36 years. On the other hand, women are the group that is more susceptible to heat, compared to men. The implementation of improvements and the evaluation of heat-wave impact prevention plans should continue in order to ensure adequate adaptation in the future.