Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during extreme precipitation
Abstract
In this paper we present a methodology suitable for investigating the relative and combined influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of cities to pluvial flooding. A combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach enables the quantification of the flood risk relative to changes in imperviousness and climate change. The methodology is evaluated for the Danish city of Odense, but is easily applicable for the majority of cities within Europe, as it relies on open source data for the European continent. Results from Odense show that urban development during the past 30 years caused an increase in flood exposure that is comparable to what is expected in the RCP4.5 (+2°C) climate scenario.